Brexit vote in Commons 'on a KNIFE EDGE' as Theresa May fails to make breakthrough with EU

Experts have voiced their predictions over what will happen at the next Brexit vote in the House of Commons to take place on Tuesday, which could see Britain leave the EU without a deal or even see leaving delayed. Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, told CNBC: “Next week's vote will be on a knife-edge vote — as such, we only put the odds of May's deal going through at 55 percent. “If May fails to win backing this month, a very different deal would likely return in June, such as Common Market 2.0 or a Norway Plus agreement based on membership of the single market and a customs union.” She added: “The real prospect of that might just tip enough eurosceptics into May's column.”

Bruce Kasman, managing director and head of economic research at J.P.Morgan, added: “We doubt May can achieve victory at this stage.

“A two-to three-month extension of Article 50 appears likely with May securing passage of the deal by early April.”

Michael O'Sullivan, the managing director of Credit Suisse in the Private Banking & Wealth Management Division, believes the UK is headed for a no deal, which will see Britain leave the EU without an agreement to remain in the boy’s customs union and single market.

He said: “Politically, the risk that the Brexiteers might miss the Brexit train, and the opening up of the political centre creates a set of incentives that could well lead to a deal.”

Carl Weinberg, chief international economist at High Frequency Economics, said: “We suppose that Parliament's vote on March 12 will be another overwhelming rejecting of the negotiated deal, since the deal will be the same.

“Some theorise that with a ‘delayed Brexit’ alternative now on the table, hardliners will vote in favour of what they call a ‘bad deal’ rather than see Brexit delayed. We do not think MPs will be swayed by that.”

The remarks come after Attorney General Geoffrey Cox hinted the ultimate issue with the EU's Brexit withdrawal agreement keeping talks with Michel Barnier deadlocked is the question of whether the backstop protocol could have a time limit.

Addressing MPs in the House of Commons, the Conservative MP claimed he could not disclose exactly what he and EU negotiator Michel Barnier had discussed but did drop a serious hint.

Labour MP Hilary Benn questioned the Attorney General on whether an arbitration panel to deal with the issue of the backstop was at all necessary even though the Withdrawal Agreement already provides the UK and the EU to refer to one for any disputes arising from the interpretation of the deal.

It comes as Brussels sources reported the Attorney General infuriated EU chiefs when he pitched “unintelligible” Brexit compromises in a desperate bid to save Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

Talks staled when Brussels rejected what Mr Cox called “very reasonable proposals”.

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